Every Autumn Budget creates winners and losers, especially for people thinking about retirement, passing on wealth or making big financial decisions. The challenge is knowing which rumours are worth paying attention to, and which you can safely ignore. In this article, we look at the Autumn Budget 2025 Rumours currently circulating, and our Chartered Financial Planners have recorded short videos explaining how likely we think they are, and what any changes could mean in real terms.
Autumn Budget 2025 Rumours: The six key rumours to watch out for
Here’s our round-up of the six key rumours ahead of the Autumn Budget on 26th November 2025.
1. Pension tax-free lump sum (Likelihood: 4/10)
There’s long-running speculation that the 25% tax-free lump sum could be capped for larger pension pots, with figures such as £100,000 floated.
A change like this would be complicated, unpopular and require a long transition, so we think it’s unlikely to feature this year.
Watch the explainer:
Budget Rumour: Pension tax-free lump sums
2. Flat-rate pension tax relief (Likelihood: 7/10)
There is strong speculation that higher-rate and additional-rate tax relief could be replaced with a single flat rate of 25%–30%.
This would mean:
- Higher earners receive less relief
- Basic-rate and some non-taxpayers may receive more
It has been modelled repeatedly by think tanks and the Treasury, so we think it’s a real possibility.
Watch the video:
Budget Rumour: Pension tax relief
3. Pension contribution allowances cut (likelihood: 6/10)
The annual pension allowance could fall from £60,000 back to £40,000. This mainly affects:
- Higher earners
- Those making larger “catch-up” contributions later in life
The allowance was only increased two years ago, so reversing that decision would be easy to implement. We think it’s more likely than not, but not guaranteed.
Watch the video:
Budget Rumour: Cutting the pension contribution allowances
4. Inheritance tax & gifting rules (Likelihood: varies)
Lifetime gifting cap (6/10)
There are rumours of a new lifetime gifting allowance of £50,000–£200,000, with anything over the cap potentially taxed at 40%.
A significant shift like this would likely be phased in after consultation.
7-year rule changes (2/10)
There is some speculation about extending or scrapping the 7-year rule, but we see this as less likely, with attention focused more on gifting caps.
Smaller exemptions removed (7/10)
The £3,000 annual exemption, gifts on marriage or birth, and “normal expenditure out of income” may be easy targets for reform.
We think there’s a good chance these could be scaled back or removed.
Watch the IHT breakdown:
Budget Rumour: Inheritance Tax
5. Capital Gains Tax (CGT): Real impact potential
CGT rate rises (9/10)
There is strong speculation that CGT rates could rise, and even a modest increase can influence the timing of sales and how portfolios are managed.
We see this as highly likely.
CGT allowance changes (8/10)
The annual CGT exemption has already been cut to £3,000, and could be reduced further or scrapped altogether.
This looks like an “easy win” for the Treasury.
CGT uplift at death (1/10)
Removing the CGT “step-up” on death feels too complex for this Budget and is unlikely.
Watch the full explainer:
Budget Rumour: Capital Gains Tax
6. Property & landlords: Potential shifts ahead
National Property Tax replacing Stamp Duty (8/10)
A bold rumour suggests scrapping Stamp Duty and replacing it with a National Property Tax payable annually on homes over a certain value, potentially £500,000.
We think a phased approach is quite likely over time.
National Insurance on rental income (9/10)
One rumour gaining traction is charging 8% NI on rental income.
This would reduce net rental profits, though it wouldn’t apply to people above State Pension age.
CGT on main homes over £1.5m (2/10)
Charging CGT on gains from main residences above £1.5m is expected to face fierce resistance.
We think it’s unlikely for this Budget.
Watch the full property breakdown:
Budget Rumour: Property
Other Autumn Budget 2025 rumours you may have seen
We cover other topics in our full Autumn Budget 2025 Rumours Video Series, such as:
- Wealth tax
- ISA allowance changes
- Income tax threshold freezes
- VAT on children’s clothing
- Child benefit increases
Watch every clip here:
So, what should you do now?
There’s no need to make rushed decisions based on speculation. But if you’re approaching retirement or making important financial choices, timing and structure can make a real difference.
Here are some sensible steps:
- Review your position if you’re planning pension contributions, gifting or asset sales this year.
- Check your allowances, especially for pensions, CGT and inheritance planning.
- Consider timing, particularly if you were already preparing to take some action before year-end.
- Landlords and higher earners may benefit from reviewing their tax position ahead of Budget Day.
If you want clarity before acting, watch the relevant video or speak with one of our Chartered Financial Planners.
Get Clarity Before the Budget, Not After
Whatever the Chancellor announces, great financial planning doesn’t rely on guesswork; it depends on understanding your position, modelling the impact of possible changes and having a clear plan that holds steady through uncertainty.
If you’d like clarity on what these rumours could mean for your finances, or want to review your strategy ahead of Budget Day, we’re here to help.
Watch the full Budget Rumours Video Series
Or Book a Budget Impact Call
